STAtistics Monthly Schedule

(AP Statistics, Period E)

M 11/3/03	HW due: Design an experiment on a subject that is of some personal interest to you. Remember to pose the research question carefully. If possible, incorporate blocking into your design. (The design that we were working on when time ran out on Thursday 10/30 did not involve blocking.) Important: Remember to block before randomizing the assignment of treatments to subjects.
T 11/4/03	HW due: Revise your experimental design, or make a new one from scratch, in such a way as to incorporate the ideas we discussed in class yesterday. Important: Remember to state your research question explicitly.
W 11/5/03	HW due: Write additional objections to the design of the healing touch experiment discussed in class. Especially pay attention to the degree to which the experiment addresses the research question (“Does same-gender healing touch speed the recovery from acute arthritis episodes?”). If the research question is not properly answered by the experiment, explain clearly why it is not. Try to find objections that are not easily corrected. For example, the question of acuteness of attack is easily solved by changing the diagram so that the 50 volunteers are recruited from a pool of acute arthritis sufferers. The question about the word “speed” is resolved by noting that since almost all acute arthritis episodes—with or without treatment—eventually lead to recovery, the research question is really asking whether healing touch is better than a placebo treatment in bringing about pain reduction in a relatively short period of time. (We said 60 minutes.) You will have to think seriously about this assignment. Because we have exhausted most of the glib or easy objections, the going will be harder from now on.
Th 11/6/03	HW due: Read §5.3.
F 11/7/03	HW due: Your choice of #5.57 or #5.62. For this assignment, use the random digit table beginning at row 130, not row 125.
M 11/10/03	Day of rest.
T 11/11/03	HW due (double assignment, 70 minutes suggested): 1. Clean up your assignment from last Friday, reworking your concept of “trial” if necessary. Remember, replicating 50 trials in #5.57 means 50 groups of 5 digits. Then, work the other problem. (If you did #5.57 last week, do #5.62 after you have corrected #5.57. If you did #5.62 last week, do #5.57 after you have corrected #5.62.) Be sure to show adequate work for both problems, either by circling events on a copy of the random digit table or by writing the row ID and numeric contents (or excerpt) when events of interest occur. Remember, each problem should begin on row 130. When you finish, both problems should be clear, complete, ready for publication. 2. Read §6.1 and execute #6.1. Record the outcomes as a sequence, e.g., “HTTHH HTTHT THHTH THTTH HHTHH HTTHT TTHTT THHTH HTHHT HTTHH.” Do not fake the data; record exactly what you see. 3. Finish the computation that we left pending at the end of class Friday: P(3 or more missed baskets out of 5) = P(0 baskets) + P(1 basket) + P(2 baskets) = q^5 + 5pq^4 + 10p^2q^3. Is the estimate of 0.1 that we obtained by the Monte Carlo method reasonable?
W 11/12/03	No additional HW due. Class will start at noon in order to give everyone time to attend the funeral for Dr. Howard and the reception afterward.
Th 11/13/03	HW due: #6.7, 6.8, and the following exercise. Exercise: Interview four people, no two of whom are from the same immediate grade year or community. For example, you could interview a parent, a Lower Schooler, a faculty member, and a classmate. You could not interview both of your parents, or two of your close friends, or two math department faculty members, because those people are too closely linked. Perhaps the easiest solution would be to interview members of Forms III, IV, V, and VI at lunch, but perform the interviews separately, so that nobody can overhear anyone else’s answer. Ask them, “Please explain, in your own words, the law of large numbers (sometimes called the law of averages). What do you think it means?” Write down exactly what they say, grammar mistakes and all. Then write your own answer (without peeking or looking it up in the textbook).
F 11/14/03	HW due: #6.19, 6.22. Also, please read this article from the world of hockey, and circle any errors that you find.
M 11/17/03	Happy Quiz (counts only if it helps your average) on Chapter 5, §6.1, and class discussions. This was originally scheduled for Friday. HW due: First, use a truth table to prove ~(A Ç B) Û ~A È ~B. Second, make a Venn diagram that shows three overlapping circles A, B, and C, and write out “probability-style” notation for the eight regions that are created. (We did several of these in class on Friday.) Finally, if you have not already done so, finish reading through the end of §6.2 and write notes. HW due (repeat): In class, after the quiz, we will discuss the hockey article and will work out most of the remaining poker probabilities. If you have not already read this article, be sure to do so and circle any errors that you find.
T 11/18/03	HW due: Read carefully about poker probabilities (5 card stud) and prepare a written list of questions, because you are sure to have some. Then review the hockey article so that we can discuss it as well.
W 11/19/03	HW due: Begin reading §6.3 (reading notes not required yet); write #6.35, 6.36, 6.37, 6.65.
Th 11/20/03	HW due: Finish reading §6.3 (reading notes required); write #6.57, 6.60, 6.64, 6.66.
F 11/21/03	Quiz on Chapter 6. There will be approximately 15 minutes for questions before the quiz. HW due: Same as yesterday, except redo #6.66 with 100,000 people falling through the tree diagram. For today’s HW scan, there will be no credit if you still have a placeholder for #6.57. Be sure that you enter the program on p.361 and execute it so as to record your results for n = 50, 100, and 200. Leave your program in your calculator.
M 11/24/03	Review day. We will also choose groups for the experimental design and execution project. Use the Barron’s book as a source of multiple-choice and free-response problems related to the following: Experimental design SRS Stratified sampling Sampling frame Types of bias (response bias, voluntary response biase undercoverage, etc.) Matched pairs Blocking [etc.] Probability Sample space Conditional probability Venn diagrams Multiplication principle General union/intersection rules MEAU and IMI rules (see Mr. Hansen’s abbreviations) Law of large numbers [etc.] Sampling distributions will also be covered to the extent reviewed in class today. Additional study links: Experimental design, study design (omit most questions concerning regression) Mr. Hansen’s study guide Eric Love’s study guide (1/12/1999 revised version) Old test on experimental design, bias, etc. (merged version, with comments) Probability (omit questions on binomial distributions and mean/s.d. of random variables) Study guide on probability Test on probability Probability answer key
T 11/25/03	Test on Chapters 5 and 6.
W 11/26/03	No school (Thanksgiving break).

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Last updated: 03 Dec 2003