STAtistics Monthly Schedule

(AP Statistics, Period F)

M 12/2/02	HW due: Write up a statement of your research question and think through some aspects of your proposed methodology. In class, we will form groups and decide upon experiment projects for the second quarter.
T 12/3/02	Project work day. Rendezvous with your new group (see list below) in Room S. You may then go to a location of your own choosing to vote on the group leader and to develop a draft of your controlled experiment methodology. Group leaders should e-mail me the election results and, if possible, the writeup of the methodology so that we can refine the project proposals on Wednesday during class. Group A: NH (leader), JG, JK. Group B: WW, AE, TM. Group C: EB, GO, MM. Group D: LB, AA, JE, KR. If the project leader is absent, he is responsible for appointing a deputy project leader for the day. If one or more members of a group are absent and the remaining one(s) cannot determine what to do, the one(s) present will be responsible for writing the draft methodology on their own. No group will be granted a deadline extension for Wednesday's draft methodology unless all members of the group have excused absences. (Cuts do not count as an excused absence.)
W 12/4/02	HW due: Project leaders for groups B, C, and D should inform me by e-mail of the election results well before the start of class. If possible, please also e-mail your group's draft methodology for your controlled experiment. If there is not time to e-mail the methodology, bring it to class in legible, written form so that I can duplicate it and distribute it for comment. IMPORTANT: Be sure to state your research question clearly, and be sure to take the issues of control, randomization, and replication into account as you design your methodology.
Th 12/5/02	No school (snow day).
F 12/6/02	Meet in Room S as usual (not affected by House Tour). HW due: All four groups should revise their methodology. State the research question as a question, be very clear about what response variable is to be measured, and use a diagram to reduce wordiness. Here is an example of a methodology writeup to help you focus your efforts. This example is more detailed than what you could write during the AP exam, but it should give you an idea of what I expect in your group project. Do not abbreviate when writing up your group project.
M 12/9/02	HW due: E-mail your revised methodology to me. This version will be graded. At the end of class Friday, I also asked you to finish reading the sample methodology writeup.
T 12/10/02	HW due: Read §6.1 and be prepared for another short comprehension quiz.
W 12/11/02	No school (ice storm). I will be calling group leaders for Project #1A and Project #2 individually during the day to discuss status. Before we reconvene on Thursday, every group should have a plan in place for completing the (ancient) data exploration project and should have a final, approved version of experimental methodology so that data gathering can be complete before we break for Christmas. Group leaders: Feel free to contact me before I contact you if you think you may be away from your house later today. It is important that we touch base today so as to avoid losing any additional time.
Th 12/12/02	No additional HW due today other than as described in the calendar entry for W 12/11.
F 12/13/02	Class meets in Room R today. HW due: Consider the following genetics problem (courtesy of M. McCullough, STA Class of 2001). An individual inherits a certain gene from each of two parents, and there are 40 equally likely possibilities for the gene, which we label 1 through 40. However, when we analyze the DNA with a gel technique, all we can see is the "banding pattern" that the genes produce. An individual who inherited #6 from the mother and #37 from the father would show exactly the same banding pattern as someone who inherited the #37 from the mother and the #6 from the father. Moreover, if someone inherits the same gene from both parents, the gel will show only a single band (for example, a band for #17 if both mother and father had #17). The question is as follows: What is the probability that two randomly selected, unrelated individuals show the exact same banding pattern? This is a rather difficult question from a college-level statistics course. If you cannot make any headway on the problem, please tackle this simpler problem that is virtually equivalent: What is the probability that when Adam and Belinda each roll a pair of dice, they get a matching roll? (For example, we say that a 1-1 matches a 1-1, but a 3-5 would match with either a 3-5 or a 5-3. A 3-5 does not match a 4-4 because those are different patterns, even though they have the same sum.) You may stop when you have achieved a demonstrably correct answer or have spent 30 documentable minutes in thought, whichever comes first. "I don't understand" is not acceptable; at a minimum, I would expect to receive an e-mail or voice mail message.
M 12/16/02	Class meets in Room R again today. HW due: Read §6.2 and be prepared for a possible comprehension quiz on §6.1 and §6.2.
T 12/17/02	HW due: Read §6.3 and prepare a thoughtful, reasoned response to the infamous Monty Hall problem. Read these 18 arguments that people have proposed regarding the problem. Which, if any, of these arguments do you agree with? In class: We will derive several of the 5-card draw poker probabilities, leaving the remaining ones for HW.
W 12/18/02	HW due: Compute the remaining 5-card draw poker probabilities, showing all your work and explanations.
Th 12/19/02	HW due: Be prepared for a quiz on Section 6.3. Finish writing up all of the poker probabilities (showing explanations clearly, with arrows).
F 12/20/02	No additional HW due. You are expected to attend the Festival of Lessons and Carols on Thursday night, plus I know that many of you are musicians with even longer time commitments during this busy week. In class: Read the entire page about sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value, and work in small groups to solve mini-project problems 3 through 6. Show up at the usual time (12:45). ALL CLASSES WILL BE COVERED TODAY, EITHER BY SUBSTITUTE TEACHERS OR BY ME IN PERSON. ATTENDANCE WILL BE TAKEN. IF FOR SOME REASON I DO NOT COME IN, THERE WILL BE AN ATTENDANCE SHEET ON THE DOOR FOR YOU TO SIGN.
Christmas Break	Relax, but spend at least a bit of time on several different occasions reviewing for your midterm exam. Remember, the exam is on the very first day of exam week. Also, finish up your mini-project.

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Last updated: 06 Jan 2003