Welcome to the STAtistics Zone

(Statistics, Period B)
Web address shortcut for this page: http://www.modd.net/1112stat

Are you nervous when you see NCWEE? concerned when you see CIRC? perturbed when you see PBC? Visit Mr. Hansen’s fabled abbreviations page to make sense of those cryptic markings you see on your papers.

Schedule at a Glance (see archives for older entries) Written assignments should follow the HW guidelines. Recurring Assignment: Each Wednesday from 9/14/2010 through 12/7/2010, there may be a discussion or a graded open-notes quiz on the most recent “Quick Study” column in the Washington Post Health section.
M 4/23/012	No school.
T 4/24/012	HW due: 1. Download the 1997 released exam from AP Central. 2. Print out free-response problems 4 and 5 only. (These are found on the pages that are numbered 44 and 45 at the bottoms of the pages. However, when printing from your computer, you must request pages 48 and 49, not 44 and 45.) 3. Write out complete solutions to problems 4 and 5. Time limit is 26 minutes total, approximately 13 minutes each, but you can divide the time as you see fit. When time is up, STOP. 4. Read most of the scoring information on pp. 70-81. Please do not kill trees by printing out all of this information, but if you insist, remember that you would request pages 74-85 when making the printout. 5. Score each problem on a holistic scale of 0 to 4, using the scoring criteria and sample student responses provided. Note: If you choose not to do this assignment, your parents may receive an e-mail or a telephone call recommending that you not take the AP exam. This is a reasonable-length assignment for a long weekend, and if you are committed to taking the exam, you will find that the assignment allows you to score reasonably well (3 or 4) on each question. Also note: Some test problems on which you “bled” large numbers of points on last Thursday’s test may be rescored in a more generous fashion if you have a corrected version on hand today, provided that your corrections are thorough, accurate, and neat.
W 4/25/012	HW due: Study for the Must-Pass Quiz. Note that this doubles as a review for the AP exam. As you saw yesterday, some questions from the MPQ may occur in class from time to time.
Th 4/26/012	HW due: Same as yesterday, plus recorded problems from the AP review book, totaling 35 minutes or more. Keep a written time log this time, regardless of whether you do all studying, all question answering, or a mixture.
F 4/27/012	HW due: Same as yesterday. Keep a time log. Proper HW format is required, as always.
M 4/30/012	HW due: Same as last Friday. Keep a time log. Proper HW format is required, as always.
T 5/1/012	HW due: Keep a time log. Set a timer for 13 minutes and write up a legible response to parts (a) through (d) of Question 5 at this link. Then use a different color of pencil or pen to score your answers, based on the guidelines presented in pages 13-15 here. With any remaining time that you have, work additional problems in your AP review book.
W 5/2/012	HW due: Same as yesterday, except do Questions 2 and 3 at this link. Allow 26 minutes for writing up your solutions. Then use a different color of pencil or pen to score your answers, based on the guidelines presented in pages 5-9 here. Yesterday’s assignment may also be scanned a second time. Be sure that you have completed Questions 2, 3, and 5, as well as the scoring for each one.
Th 5/3/012	HW due: Same as yesterday, except do Questions 1 and 4 at this link. Allow 26 minutes for writing up your solutions. Then use a different color of pencil or pen to score your answers, based on the guidelines presented in pages 2-4 and 10-12 here. Yesterday’s assignment may also be scanned a second time, and Tuesday’s assignment may be scanned a third time. Be sure that you have completed Questions 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, as well as the scoring for each one.
F 5/4/012	HW due: Write Question 6 at this link. Note that this question comes from an exam that is different from the one we have been using the last several days. Allow 25 minutes for writing up your solutions. Then use a different color of pencil or pen to score your answers, based on the guidelines presented in pages 19-23 here. Assignments from earlier in the week may be rescanned as well.
M 5/7/012	HW due: Keep an accurate time log, and do at least 35 minutes of focused study of AP review problems, with the answers recorded on your notebook filler paper. If you are planning to take the AP exam, 35 minutes is an absolute minimum; an hour would be better.
T 5/8/012	HW due: Another 35 minutes’ worth, same as yesterday’s assignment but with different problems. Remember, 35 minutes is a minimum. If you are planning to take the AP exam, an hour would be better.
W 5/9/012	HW due: Another 35 minutes’ worth, same as yesterday’s assignment but with different problems. Remember, 35 minutes is a minimum. If you are planning to take the AP exam, an hour would be better.
Th 5/10/012	HW due: Choose (A) or (B). (A) Do another 35 minutes’ worth of AP review problems, same as yesterday’s assignment but with different problems. Record all answers on your notebook filler paper, and keep a time log. OR (B) (alternative assignment) Help Matt, Nathan, and/or Frederik prepare for the MPQ. They are all doing reasonably well. Write the name(s) of the classmates you helped or were helped by. Keep a time log, and record the question numbers that you practiced. If you study for less than 35 minutes on the MPQ, you can satisfy the remaining portion of your 35-minute requirement by doing some AP review problems as in choice (A) above. The total time should be at least 35 minutes.
F 5/11/012	Congratulations! The class of 2012 is the first STAtistics class in history to attain a 100% pass rate on the MPQ by so early in the season. May 10 is a record that may stand for many years to come. Way to go! HW due: AP review, at least 35 minutes’ worth. Keep a time log, as always. AP U.S. History student (Karl) is automatically excused and is exempt from today’s HW assignment. AP European History students (Steven, Sam, Joe, Kieran, Bogdan) are exempt from today’s HW assignment but are not excused from class until there is an e-mail request on file. So far, not everyone has made a request. If there is no request and you miss class, a cut will be charged.
M 5/14/012	HW due: Study for your various AP exams. No additional written HW will be collected today. In class: Odds ratios.
T 5/15/012	AP review.
W 5/16/012	AP review (continued). Today’s class is optional for those who are taking the AP exam in the afternoon. All attempts will be made to have a class that is worthwhile and helpful in boosting your score. AP Statistics Exam, 12:30 p.m., Trapier Theater. Please arrive by 12:15. What to bring: calculator, spare batteries, several sharpened pencils with erasers, snack. Leave at home or in your car: scratch paper, cell phone. A pen is allowed on the free-response questions, but a pencil is preferred. Remember, mark an “X” to save time instead of erasing large sections. You must leave your calculator in the exam room during the break. There is to be no discussion of exam questions during the break.
Th 5/17/012	Quiz (10 pts.) on odds ratios. In class: Begin Painting with Numbers by Randall Bolten, STA ’70.
F 5/18/012	Field trip to the National Cryptologic Museum, Fort Meade, MD (adjacent to the NSA parking lot). We will leave at 8:00 a.m. sharp from the service road near the Martin Gym. * * * NORMAL DRESS CODE (BLAZER AND TIE) IS IN EFFECT DURING THE FIELD TRIP. * * * During the bus ride to and from Fort Meade, you may remove your blazer if you wish. If you attend the field trip, you are excused from A-F period classes. If you cannot attend the field trip, then you must attend all classes as usual and write up problems 4, 5, 9, and 10 from the Mathematical Scavenger Hunt. In that case, your paper will be collected on Monday.
M 5/21/012	Guest speaker: Mr. Fred Richards, Senior Director, Oracle Business Intelligence. HW due (only for those who did not attend the field trip): problems 4, 5, 9, and 10 from the Scavenger Hunt.
T 5/22/012	No additional HW. In class: Distribution of class copies of Painting with Numbers by Randall Bolten, STA ’70. We will continue our coverage of Chapters 7 and 10.
W 5/23/012	HW due: Read Chapter 7 (pp. 125-150) of Painting with Numbers. Reading notes are required, as always. Reading notes may be collected. Copying of reading notes is not permitted. Violators may be sent to the honor council. If you are unable to finish the reading, then do as much as you can, and keep a time log.
Th 5/24/012	HW due: Finish Chapter 7 (pp. 125-150) and start reading Chapter 10. Reading notes are required. Reading notes may be collected. Copying of reading notes is not permitted. Violators may be sent to the honor council.

Essential Links:
-- STA School Handbook
-- College Board: AP Statistics Course Description
-- College Board: more than 100 AP free-response questions and scoring rubrics from previous years
-- Our old textbook’s site has online quizzes and some useful links
-- RVLS (Rice Virtual Lab in Statistics): One of the best sites anywhere for statistics! Here you’ll find a complete college statistics course (complete with clickable glossary and great case studies), simulations, and some excellent analysis tools.
-- Virtual Laboratories in Probability and Statistics (University of Alabama at Huntsville)
-- StatCrunch 3.0 (formerly WebStat): An on-line statistical computing package (requires Java)
-- How to study statistics (written by a professor at the University of Central Florida, but the ideas are valid for our class)
-- Eric Weisstein’s World of Mathematics: a monstrously huge hyperlinked reference
-- The Must-Pass Quiz for Statistics: doubles as a review for the AP exam

TI-83 Links:
-- CINT (converts confidence interval from interval notation to the more convenient “estimate ± m.o.e.” format)
-- INVT (inverse t) program written by Mr. Hansen and the Class of 1999
-- CHISQGOF (Chi-Square Goodness of Fit) program also written by Mr. Hansen and the Class of 1999
-- CSDELUXE (Chi-Square Deluxe): combines CHISQGOF and STAT TESTS C into one package; written by Mr. Hansen for the Class of 2003
-- Modifications to SCATRBOX program so that it returns the LSRL equation at the end (follow-on to a stat teacher workshop I attended on 12/5/2001)
-- David Pachner’s statistical test and confidence interval files for the TI-83 (added 4/16/2001; not reviewed by Mr. Hansen for accuracy)
-- TI-83 programs from Texas Instruments

Philosophical Links:
-- In praise of Bayes: a very readable overview of the tension between the standard (“frequentist”) approach to probability and the Bayesian view

Controversial Links:
-- Does an elite college really pay? Article addresses the issue of whether you would do better financially if you simply invested the difference in tuition price.
-- Does traditional hypothesis testing actually make sense? Article questions whether the entire second semester of our course is a waste of time . . .
-- Are law schools cooking their ranking statistics? Every high school statistics student should read this (and maybe a second time, four years later).

Fun Links:
-- Guessing correlation coefficients by eye
-- Another correlation game
-- Photos from our 5/20/99 field trip to the National Cryptologic Museum at the NSA
-- Huge Internet gallery of statistics jokes (warning: many are excellent, but some are dangerously lame)
-- Average age at death for rock stars is 36.9 (vs. 75.8 for the overall population). . . this site is religiously oriented (and apparently sincere), but the reasoning process is seriously flawed. Can you find the problem?
-- Chance Database Welcome Page (this is the link cited in the 4/4/99 Washington Post Unconventional Wiz column)
-- Accident statistics (the taxicab problem)
-- Psychological probability quiz
-- Marilyn is Wrong! (a truly great site, even though it doesn’t seem to include Dr. Morse’s response to Marilyn yet)
-- Male sweat may be good for women’s health (a scholarly article with p- and t-values from 2003, plus an abstract in 2007)
-- Lying with statistics
-- One of the biggest marketing blunders of all time: the New Coke fiasco
-- More fun links on Mr. Hansen’s home page

Serious Links (click here)

Extra Credit (please see me if interested):
-- American Statistical Association poster or project competition, deadline 4/1/2012 if you desire extra credit
-- Washington Statistical Society Curtis Jacobs Memorial Prize, deadline 5/4/2012
-- Other extra credit options are available under the Fun Links at modd.net (see Mathcross Puzzles)

Group Projects (1998 onward):
Exploratory Data Analysis
-- Assignment (2005-06)
-- Results (1998-99)
-- Results (1999-2000)
-- Results (2000-01)
-- Results (2005-06)
Opinion Survey
-- Assignment (2000-01)
-- Results (1999-2000)
-- Results (2000-01)
Experimental Design and Execution
-- Assignment (2000-01)
-- Results (1998-99)
-- Results (2000-01)
Pairs Project on How to Lie With Statistics and P-value Calculations
-- Assignment (2000-01)
-- List of Partners (2000-01)
Critique of a Scientific Article
-- Assignment
AP Review
-- D period (1998-99)
-- F period (1998-99)

Test #1 (Chapters 1-2 plus §3.1 of old textbook), Sept. 2000:
-- Test #1

Old Test #1 (Introduction through Section 2.2 of old old textbook):
-- Study guide
-- Test #1D--has a residual plot question not found in the F period version
-- Test #1F

Test #2, Oct. 1998:
-- Mr. Hansen’s study guide
-- Eric Love’s study guide (1/12/1999 revised version)
-- Test #2 (merged version, with comments)

Test #3 (Chapter 5) for 1999-2000
-- Answers to practice test (the practice test was handed out in hard copy form on 11/15/1999)
-- Take-home portion distributed 11/16/1999, due 11/17/1999

Old Test #3 (Chapter 4 of old old textbook):
-- Study guide
-- Test #3 (merged version)
-- Answer key

Test #4 (Sections 5.1, 5.2, 6.1 of old old textbook):
-- Study guide
-- Test #4D
-- Test #4F

Test #4 (Chapters 7 and 8 of old textbook: random variables, binomial & geometric distributions):
-- Actual test, 1/29/2004

Test #5 (Sections 6.2, 6.3, 7.1 of old old textbook):
-- Study guide
-- Practice test
-- Answer key for practice test (incl. correction to #18 suggested by C. Muller)
-- Test #5 (merged version)

Test #5 (Sections 7.2 through 9.1 of old textbook):
-- Actual test, 2/6/2002

Test #6 (Sections 7.1-7.3 of old old textbook):
-- Practice test
-- Answer key for practice test
-- Test #6D, with answer key

Test #6 (Chapters 9 and 10 of old textbook):
-- Actual test, 3/7/2002

Test #7 (Sections 8.1-8.3 of old old textbook, plus Chi-Square GOF):
-- Answer key for sample test problems
-- In-class portion
-- Take-home portion

Test #8 (Section 9.1 of old old textbook, plus Geometric Probability Distributions):
-- Take-home test due Wednesday 4/28/1999
-- Answer key (not yet released)

AP Exam Review
-- Real sample AP questions from the College Board
-- TI-83 Function Summary
-- TI-83 STAT TESTS Summary, including the assumptions you need to check
-- PHA(S)TPC procedures, a systematic way of performing statistical tests and calculating confidence intervals
-- LSRL Top Ten
-- Normal vs. Binomial: What are the hallmarks and differences? (Includes many example problems, with solutions.)
-- Formula sheet markup guide
-- Guide to standard error formulas (third page of the AP formula sheet)

Question of the day: 12/15/1998

Preview of quiz for Wednesday, 11/18/1998

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Last updated: 23 May 2012