F 12/1/00

Mini-Quiz on Chapter 6 (probability). D period meets in Room S as usual, but F period meets in Room T (computer lab). HW due today: Read carefully through the key to the conditional probability mini-project and patch up the gaps (i.e., step 5 of #2, plus #3(h, j, n) and #5c). In #3(n), use the appropriate general formula. Also, keep working on next Tuesday’s large HW set.

M 12/4/00

HW due today: In problem #5(c) from the conditional probability mini-project, you were asked by what factor P(S | P) exceeds P(S). A more interesting question is by what factor the incidence of smoking behavior among people with psychological conditions exceeds the incidence of smoking behavior among people without psychological conditions. Compute this number, showing correct notation and all work. (Also, keep working on the large HW set due tomorrow.) In class today: Start permutations, combinations, and 5-card draw poker probabilities. If you took the Dec. 1 Mini-quiz on Chapter 6 (probability), be sure to read the answer key and correct your mistakes.

T 12/5/00

HW due today: #6.47, 48, 50, 52, 53, 59, 60, 61, 65, 66. If you are absent for any foreseen reason (e.g., field trip), be sure to give me your HW early to avoid losing points. HW submitted late (even after you return from the field trip) will be charged accordingly. In class today: Sensitivity, specificity, and more about conditional probability.

W 12/6/00

Review for test. Before class, you should work through the 1998 Test #3 and Sample Quiz and make a note of any problems you run into. (Ignore questions having to do with random variables for now.) Remember that you are also responsible for experimental design (including placebos, blinding, blocking, control, etc.) and simulations. Thanks to David Pachner’s excellent suggestion, I have prepared some more review problems and even an answer key to help you study.

Th 12/7/00

Test on Chapters 5 and 6. Note that the answer key to the extra review problems has been enlarged beyond the version that was distributed in hard copy in Wednesday’s class. Also for your studying pleasure: answer key to 1998 Test #3.

F 12/8/00

Due today: Take-home portion of yesterday's test, unless you already turned it in. In class: Permutations, combinations, and 5-card draw poker probabilities.

M 12/11/00

HW due today: Fill in the poker probability table, showing your work.

T 12/12/00

HW due today: Finish the poker probability table, this time with correct answers! Collaboration with friends is permitted, but each person must have complete answers with justification. Also compute correct answers to both versions of the psychological smoker problem, namely
(a) P(S | P) / P(S) = __________________
(b) P(S | P) / P(S | ~P) = __________________
Be sure to show your work in both cases. Today’s homework assignment may be collected.

W 12/13/00

Day of Rest. However, F period must email the completion of the psychological smoker problem, part (b). Send work and answer by e-mail before 3:00 p.m. Remember, part (b) is to compute P(S | P) / P(S | ~P).

Th 12/14/00

Before class today, read §7.1. If you are not in class, be sure to fill in the check for understanding, which should help focus your note-taking.

F 12/15/00

HW due today: Read through p.394 and write problems #7.17, 7.18, and 7.22.